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Israel-Lebanon ceasefire: What you need to know

 


After nearly 14 months of fighting, both Hezbollah and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire deal brokered by France and the United States. But experts say the truce remains fragile.

What does the ceasefire agreement say?

The ceasefire agreement provides for a two-month halt to fighting between the Israeli military and the armed wing of the militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon.

In concrete terms, the ceasefire was worded – unsurprisingly – along the same lines as the 2006 United Nations Security Council resolution, which ended a brief but brutal episode of fighting between Hezbollah and the Israeli military in July and early August of that year.

At that time, Resolution 1701 established a zone separating Israel from Hezbollah between the Litani River in Lebanon and the “Blue Line,” which is a “provisional” border drawn by the UN following earlier fighting and the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon.

In this new ceasefire, officially agreed by the governments of Israel and Lebanon, and accepted by Hezbollah, both sides recognise the importance of Resolution 1701. As a result, Hezbollah will withdraw north of the Litani River, while Israeli troops will gradually retreat south of the Blue Line.

Under Resolution 1701, this buffer zone has been managed by the Lebanese army and the 10,000-strong United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). This will continue, but the number of troops in the area will increase.

The Lebanese army will deploy 10,000 soldiers there.

The UNIFIL, made up of soldiers from 48 countries, including Germany, is now likely to receive more support from the United States and other nations.

Over the years, there have been multiple violations of Resolution 1701, with Israel and Hezbollah trading accusations that the other was the cause of all the problems. UNIFIL cannot enforce its rules militarily and must rely on the cooperation of all concerned.

There will be no US combat troops deployed in Lebanon, but there will be US military support for the Lebanese army, which is smaller, undermanned and outgunned by Hezbollah.


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Why have the parties reached an agreement?

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the ceasefire would allow Israel to “focus on Iran,” let Israeli troops recover and separate Hezbollah from Hamas in Gaza.

An analysis by the Israeli newspaper Haaretz suggested that US pressure on Israel had also increased.

Moreover, while Israeli air raids in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq can be carried out with very little danger to Israeli soldiers, the attempt to enter Lebanon was far more deadly. Hezbollah fighters were positioned along the border and the number of Israeli soldiers killed was rising.

As for Hezbollah, its leadership structures had been badly damaged, and the effects of the Israeli air strikes on civilians and the Lebanese economy “weakened” the group’s will to fight, explained Gina Abercrombie-Winstanley, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council specializing in the Middle East.

Resolution 1701 was frequently criticized, Abercrombie-Winstanley noted: “But even its imperfect implementation in 2006 brought more than 16 years of relative peace and stability. Both sides are ready for it.”

In addition, Israeli defense experts told Haaretz that they believe Hezbollah, and its supporters in Iran, also wanted time to rebuild and regroup.

Who else is involved in the ceasefire?

The ceasefire agreement does not apply in any way to what is happening in Gaza. US President Joe Biden has said he hopes the momentum generated by the Lebanon deal could lead to a similar outcome in Gaza, but Netanyahu has already reacted negatively to that suggestion.

The Gaza-based Hamas militant group “appreciates” Hezbollah’s right to reach an agreement that protects its people, one of its officials told Reuters news agency. He added that Hamas would also be prepared for a ceasefire agreement.

The ceasefire has not changed the intentions of other members of the so-called “Axis of Resistance,” a series of Iranian-backed groups that consider Israel and the US their enemies.

Hamas is classified as a terrorist organization by Germany, the United States and several other countries. Hezbollah is labelled as such by the US, Germany and several Sunni Arab countries, while the EU lists its armed wing as a terrorist group.

The ceasefire agreement makes an escalation into a direct, all-out war between Israel and Iran much less likely. Iran's foreign ministry spokesman praised the agreement, adding that a ceasefire was also needed in Gaza.

(with agency material)