Following the two-month ceasefire with Israel, Hezbollah claims victory, while
Israel and the Islamist organisation's rivals in Lebanon claim defeat. In any
case, Hezbollah will have to face a new political and military scenario after
the setbacks suffered during months of fighting in which it lost its leader
and a large part of its leadership.
Barely two hours after the ceasefire between Lebanon and Israel went into
effect at dawn on Wednesday, November 27, a vast movement of displaced Shiites
began returning to their towns and villages in southern Lebanon, the Bekaa
Valley and the southern suburbs of Beirut.
This huge return march quickly took on the appearance of a Hezbollah triumph,
with tens of thousands of people making the V for victory sign and waving
yellow flags of the Shiite party and portraits of its historic leader, Hassan
Nasrallah, eliminated by Israel on September 27. “Despite the losses, the
destruction, the tears and the blood, we have won because we are returning to
our lands that the enemy failed to occupy,” said Abu Hassan, a man in his
fifties from the ancient city of Tyre, who was returning home after a
two-month exodus.
As after the 2006 war, Hezbollah wanted to turn the return into an illustration of its “victory” in this new war.
Israel is aware of the symbolic impact of these images broadcast by the media
and the psychological consequences that these scenes of jubilation can have in
the country, where the inhabitants of the north have not yet been allowed to
return to their homes. To prevent Hezbollah from exploiting the event of the
return, the Israeli army has prohibited the inhabitants of a dozen towns in
southern Lebanon from returning to their homes until they have been allowed to
do so.
On Thursday morning, Israeli tanks fired shells at groups of people trying to
return to their homes in the border towns of Kafr Shuba and Kfar Kila. The day
before, an Associated Press photographer and a reporter from the Russian news
agency Sputnik were wounded by Israeli fire in the strategic town of Khiam,
overlooking Etzba HaGalil.
Debate in Lebanon
These incidents have rekindled debate in Lebanon over the results of this
war, which has left 3,800 dead and more than 15,000 wounded, and caused
immense destruction in dozens of cities and towns.
Hezbollah and its allies claim victory, while their Lebanese rivals speak of
a crushing defeat. In his speech on Tuesday night announcing Israel's
acceptance of the ceasefire, Benjamin Netanyahu also claimed victory: “We
have pushed Hezbollah back ten years. Three months ago, all this would have
seemed like science fiction. But we have done it. Hezbollah is no longer the
same.”
Beyond the heated controversies, experts are divided on the results of this
deadly conflict.
“Victory is not measured by the number of martyrs or the extent of
destruction. Stalingrad was razed and London destroyed during World War II.
More than 20 million Soviets died. However, Russia and Britain won the war.
The outcome of a conflict is measured by the initial objectives of the war,”
says Ahmad Noureddine, a history teacher at a public school in southern
Lebanon.
“After the elimination of Hassan Nasrallah and other top commanders,
Benjamin Netanyahu declared that he wanted to reshape the Middle East,”
explains Elias Farhat, a retired general in the Lebanese army. During a tour
of the border with Lebanon, he declared: “With or without an agreement, the
key to the return of our people to the north is to keep Hezbollah away from
the Litani River and prevent it from rearming.” Israel has achieved neither
of these objectives.
The former officer, who for years headed the Lebanese army's Guidance
Department (Media) nevertheless acknowledges that "Israel inflicted serious
losses on Hezbollah by assassinating its Secretary General and several
senior officers and destroying part of its infrastructure in southern
Lebanon, in Bekaa and in the southern suburbs of Beirut." "However, its
weapons and ammunition depots do not appear to have suffered serious damage,
as the party continued to fire hundreds of rockets at Israel every day.
Hezbollah did not win this war, but it did not lose it either," says Elias
Farhat.
The expert believes that Hezbollah "will succeed fairly quickly in restoring
its military capabilities and overcoming the damage suffered." "Ground
operations and the launching of rockets and drones have continued in a
coordinated manner, which means that the chain of command and control is
operational," he adds.
“Hezbollah is finished”
Critics of the Shiite party have a different opinion. “Hezbollah is
finished, at least as a military structure,” insists Charles Jabbour, head
of press for the Christian party Lebanese Forces (LF).
Mario Malkoun, a supporter of the LF, claims in a long post published on the
X network that the ceasefire agreement is based on UN resolution 1701, which
“demands the implementation of all international decisions, including those
calling for the disarmament of all armed groups in Lebanon.” The activist
refers to UN resolution 1559, adopted in 2004, which calls for the
disarmament of “all militias in Lebanon.”
The 13-point agreement that ended the war does not explicitly mention the
disarmament of Hezbollah, but it does stipulate that “all unauthorized
facilities related to the production of weapons and related materials will
be dismantled.” It goes on to say that “all military infrastructure and
positions that do not meet these commitments will be dismantled, and all
unauthorized weapons will be confiscated.”
Hezbollah does not consider itself a “militia” and believes that its action
of resistance against Israel is protected by the Constitution, by the Taif
Agreement, which ended the civil war, and by the ministerial declarations of
all governments since 1990.
However, the party’s detractors intend to seize the moment, calling for the
dismantling of military infrastructure and the confiscation of weapons to
force Hezbollah to make concessions on internal political issues. They
believe that now that it is weakened and busy healing its wounds and those
of its popular base, Hezbollah will withdraw its support for the candidacy
of its Maronite ally, former minister and MP Sleiman Frangié, which will
allow them to elect a figure closer to their positions.
“Hezbollah will remain a key player in Lebanon’s internal affairs and all
attempts to marginalise it politically will fail,” said Abdel Halim
Fadlallah, director of the Shiite party’s Research and Documentation
Advisory Centre. “Benjamin Netanyahu made his goals clear when he told his
Western allies that this war would be the prelude to fundamental political
changes in Lebanon. This goal failed and Hezbollah was and will remain the
largest party in Lebanon in terms of popular representation, as the recent
legislative elections demonstrated,” he said.
The challenge of reconstruction
Even if Hezbollah manages to overcome all the political hurdles that lie
ahead, it will still face the major challenge of rebuilding its popular
strongholds, which have largely been destroyed. Early partial estimates put
the cost of reconstruction at $5 billion.
“The bulk of efforts will be concentrated in the post-war period on
repairing material damage and rebuilding destroyed regions across Lebanon,
particularly Hezbollah strongholds, which were deliberately targeted to
drive a wedge between the popular base and the resistance and between this
base and the rest of the Lebanese people,” says Abdel Halim Fadlallah.
However, Elias Farhat casts doubt on Hezbollah’s ability to secure the
necessary financial resources, especially with “an impotent state and the
absence of major donors and financiers.”
Even if Israel has not succeeded in irrevocably defeating the Shiite party,
it is clear that it will face countless challenges in the post-war period,
which may be as difficult and hard as the military confrontation with the
Jewish state... if not more so.
